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It was two months in the past that the Villa attacker was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as his coach berated him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether his displays were a symptom or a cause for the team's broader struggles.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. After the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss discarded his jacket, spread his arms and roared. The team marched on to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, are somehow only three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Serious Hopefuls?

This is a particularly tough proposition to address. The historical record, a general sense of this institution, suggests not. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, despite the fact the positive results have stacked up.

As per the data, in only two games have Villa had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side who have strung together 10 in a row, the Villans seem weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the margins are swinging for them.

The Rogers Recipe

Their recent policy appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and wait for their star man to save the day with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it occurred in London, and again versus the Red Devils.

His opener came from an exquisite effort, bent precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second acted as a somewhat messier replica of the opener capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opposition had more efforts and more direct attempts. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival they will encounter in the near future. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing the ball into the top corner week in, week out.

Reasons for Optimism

Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still find their top level.

• Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
• Jadon Sancho might become the player he showed in Germany.
• The defensive duo are set to return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.

This could contain the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.

Savoring the Moment

Yet, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would sit third at Christmas. And certainly two months ago, few could imagine the young forward by the end of the year would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial England player.

The current run must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. As the match-winner stood in front of the North End when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.