Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
